pp. 359-368
S&M1186 Research Paper of Special Issue https://doi.org/10.18494/SAM.2016.1235 Published: April 20, 2016 Mood Prediction in Consideration of Certainty Factor Using Multilayer Deep Neural Network and Storage-Type Prediction Models [PDF] Yusuke Kajiwara, Haruhiko Kimura, and Takashi Oyabu (Received August 6, 2015; Accepted February 9, 2016) Keywords: deep neural network, threshold optimization, depression, biological information, weather information
Depression has become a social problem in Japan. To prevent depression, people need to recognize their mental health in daily life. Previous research supports mental health care by predicting tomorrow's mood with 73% accuracy using weather information and biological information. However, the mood after 2 d or later could not be predicted using an existing system. In this paper, we propose multilayer-deep neural network (M-DNN) and storage-type prediction models (STPMs) to predict mood two weeks in advance with high accuracy. The M-DNN outputs predictions as well as unpredictable data using a deep neural network and threshold optimization in each prediction layer. The threshold optimization determines the threshold that maximizes a certainty factor. The certainty factor is calculated from the predictive accuracy of M-DNN and the amount of unpredictable data. The STPMs interpolates the unpredictable data by accumulating the predictions output from M-DNN. The amount of unpredictable data output from the M-DNN is decreased by STPMs. Experiments show that M-DNN and STPMs can predict mood two weeks in advance with 70% accuracy. The predictive accuracy in M-DNN+STPMs is 11% higher than that in DNN. Hence, M-DNN+STPMs is an effective method for mood prediction.
Corresponding author: Yusuke KajiwaraCite this article Yusuke Kajiwara, Haruhiko Kimura, and Takashi Oyabu, Mood Prediction in Consideration of Certainty Factor Using Multilayer Deep Neural Network and Storage-Type Prediction Models, Sens. Mater., Vol. 28, No. 4, 2016, p. 359-368. |